# Wall Street Keeps Getting Surprised

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Hey, Ross here:

Stocks have had a rough few days.

But as today’s charts show…

The companies themselves are doing much better than expected.

**Chart of the Day**

![](https://stocksurgedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/image-29-1024x528.png)

This chart shows how far actual results are coming in above analyst estimates.

The median S&P 500 company beat earnings estimates by 6% this quarter.

That’s the largest median earnings surprise since Q1 2022.

Sales are beating too.

The median sales surprise is 1.6% – also around a four-year high.

In other words, companies aren’t scraping past estimates by a penny or two.

The typical company is coming in well ahead of what Wall Street expected.

And there’s another part of earnings season I’ve been watching closely.

![](https://stocksurgedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/image-28.png)

This tracks the net share of companies raising guidance versus lowering it.

And that number has climbed to its highest level in more than four years.

That’s a pretty strong combination.

Companies are beating the numbers analysts already had on the books…

And more of them are also telling Wall Street to expect better numbers going forward.

I pay special attention to that second part.

I explain the reason below.

**Insight of the Day**

**Raising guidance is management raising the bar on itself**

Beating an earnings estimate is obviously good.

But raising guidance is a different kind of decision.

Once management raises its outlook, analysts adjust their models.

Expectations go up.

And next quarter, the company gets judged against a higher number.

So executives aren’t exactly making life easier for themselves when they raise guidance.

They’re putting a better forecast on the record…

Then giving Wall Street a new target to hold them to.

That’s why the latest guidance data got my attention.

We’re not just seeing companies report a good quarter.

_A growing number of management teams are confident enough to tell investors they expect the strength to continue._

But there’s an even stronger signal I like to watch:

**_When the people running the company start putting their own money behind that confidence._**

Management can _say_ it expects business to improve.

But when they reach into their own pockets to put money behind those words…

That’s one of the strongest buying signals I know.

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Ross Givens  
Editor, Stock Surge Daily